Barrie Laver, managing director and head of venture capital & private equity at RBC Capital, leads strategic balance sheet investing for one of Canada’s largest financial institutions, spanning direct investments and fund commitments with a strong focus on climate and energy transition. 

Key takeaways

  • Public market strength has not translated into liquidity 
    • Despite strong public markets through 2025, distributions to LPs remained subdued (c.1.5–2% of NAV), highlighting a disconnect between public performance and private market liquidity. 
    • IPO activity reopened slightly late in the year but failed to meaningfully unlock exits for venture portfolios. 
  • Fundraising and deal execution remain sluggish 
    • Fundraising cycles have lengthened, with delayed first closes and reduced sizes across most funds. 
    • Transaction processes, particularly in private M&A, are taking longer to complete, reflecting ongoing market friction. 
  • Market activity skewed by large deals 
    • Overall dollar volume rose in 2025, but largely due to a small number of mega-deals rather than a broad-based increase in transactions. 
    • Persistent dry powder has not yet translated into widespread deployment. 
  • 2026 outlook: optimism tempered by new uncertainty 
    • Early expectations of a strong IPO market have not materialised; instead, markets have entered a cautious “holding pattern”. 
    • AI-driven disruption (“SaaS-pocalypse”), geopolitical tensions and inflation risks are increasing uncertainty in valuations and diligence. 
  • Valuations are bifurcated 
    • AI, data infrastructure and certain strategic sectors (e.g. defence, energy transition) continue to command strong valuations. 
    • Elsewhere, valuations are flat to declining, with loss-making or slow-growth companies facing acute fundraising challenges. 
  • Alternative liquidity routes gaining importance 
    • Increased use of SPVs and continuation vehicles as funds adapt to delayed fundraising cycles. 
    • Secondary markets remain relatively robust and are becoming a key source of liquidity. 
  • Strategic implications for portfolio companies 
    • Priority is shifting towards profitability, capital preservation and operational efficiency. 
    • A credible AI strategy is increasingly essential, both for internal productivity and product positioning. 
  • Overall takeaway 
    • The market is characterised by resilience in pockets but constrained liquidity overall; investors should expect continued volatility and prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty. 

This is an AI-generated summary, which has been lightly edited by GCV staff.